锵锵三人行

高盛重申：年末黄金价格将达到每盎司4900美元！_我的网站

A |     　　周二（8月25日），高盛重申了其对黄金价格的预测，预计到2026年底金价将达到每盎司4900美元。这一预测主要受到看涨期权需求增加的推动，这些期权可能放大金价在关键行权价附近的波动。    Vladimir Putin has prepared a cunning new “raw materials trap” relying on Bolivia’s fledgling lithium mining industry, with the trap expected to “snap shut” and leave the West again dependent on Russia for its raw material needs, Welt contributor Tobias Kaufer fears.,Pointing to the Latin American nation’s massive, untapped deposits of lithium, Kaufer expressed concerns over Russia’s interest in helping Sucre tap these resources, which are crucial for the production of batteries for electric vehicles.,According to the US Geological Survey, Bolivia’s proven lithium reserves are the largest in the world, with the country’s 21 million tons ahead of Argentina and Chile (which have 19 and 9.8 million tons-worth of reserves, respectively, and together account for more than 30 percent of global lithium output).,“Those with access to the deposits can have a say in the commodity’s prices and availability. Russia apparently has particularly good chances in Bolivia at the moment,” Kaufer wrote. For Europe, he warned, Moscow’s success in the lithium ‘poker game’ would make the commodity another area where the EU depends on Russia, just like with oil and gas.,Russia’s success will be contingent on “the outcome of the Bolivian political crime thriller,” the contributor stressed, pointing to the raging struggle between President Luis Arce, a member of former president Evo Morales’ Movement for Socialism party, and right-wing forces backed by the US attempting to overthrow leftist forces.,Ex-Bolivian President Jeanine Anez Sentenced to 10 Years in Prison Over 2019 Coup11 June, 01:54 GMT,“This is where Russia comes in. Morales is considered a clear supporter of Vladimir Putin,” Kaufer wrote, recalling the former president’s calls for an “international mobilization to stop the interventionist expansionism of NATO and the United States” in March following the escalation of the crisis in Ukraine, and years of efforts by Sucre to shore up ties with Moscow during his presidency.,“If Moscow now succeeds in supporting the socialist’s return to power, the path to the lithium deposits would be clear. At the very least, Morales could urge President Arce to sign a deal with the Russians,” the Welt contributor believes.,Rosatom, the Russian state nuclear giant, has expressed interest in helping Bolivia tap its lithium riches, and is one of six companies which have applied for their development. Others include Lilac Solutions (a US-based start-up with investments from BMW and Bill Gates’ Breakthrough Energy Ventures), Chinese battery giant CATL, and three other Chinese companies.,Along with its interest in Bolivia’s lithium, Rosatom has teamed up with Norilsk Nickel to mine for lithium ores in Russia’s Murmansk region. Last year, the company also announced plans to build a major lithium ion cell manufacturing facility in Kaliningrad, with the ambitious project hoping to begin churning out up to 4 GWh worth of batteries, or about 0.5 percent of total global demand, by 2024.,Morales' Legacy: Bolivian Joint Nuclear Project With Russia's Rosatom Unique for Latin America10 June 2021, 16:53 GMT。
　　当日，全球最大的实物黄金ETF之一SPDR Gold Shares（GLD）上涨0.79%，交易价格为426.69美元。

B | 　　市场普遍看涨情绪　　高盛将黄金价格预估为每盎司4900美元的举措反映出市场普遍看涨情绪，这主要得益于央行对实物黄金的大规模买入，以及西方私人投资者对黄金ETF投资可能大幅增加，尤其是在美联储稳定利率路径之后。　　近期，现货黄金价格一度突破4680美元，创下自五月中旬以来的最高水平，凸显了在宏观经济不确定性加剧背景下，黄金作为避险资产的需求不断上升。　　该行分析指出，衍生品市场正成为新的价格推升因素，投资者正越来越多地使用黄金看涨期权来对冲宏观经济风险。

C | 这种期权需求的上升可能导致金价出现更大幅度的上涨或下跌，尤其是在金价接近关键行权价位时。　　当前市场情绪仍保持乐观，黄金ETF的大量流入进一步支撑了这一趋势，而未来经济数据以及美联储的表态可能对其产生更大影响。　　除了高盛外，其他投行也纷纷对黄金的未来走势做出了预测。　　瑞银大宗商品分析师Giovanni Staunovo指出，全球债务水平攀升，再加上美元持续走弱，是去年金价大涨的底层逻辑，而如今这些担忧再度卷土重来，“在我们看来，未来12个月，上述因素将推动黄金价格上涨至每盎司5400美元。”　　花旗策略师Dirk Willer将未来一年黄金看向每盎司5000至6000美元，核心依据是财政部干预、美债期限溢价失控风险、美元偏弱以及“去美元化”交易重启。花旗认为，随着收益率曲线长端得到控制，黄金仍有上涨空间，“投资者可能需要结束收益率曲线陡峭化交易，重新转向黄金，并卖出美元。”　　德意志银行给出的年末基准目标为4700美元—5100美元，依托央行购金与ETF回流两股非价格敏感需求，黄金ETF过去30天净流入约150万盎司、年内累计增加约400万盎司，而2026年第一季度央行购金金额达到388.8亿美元。　　摩根士丹利分析师Amy Gower发布是报告称，黄金价格已提前达到其第四季度目标价位，并可能在2027年攀升至5000美元以上，尽管这一过程可能会充满波动。

D | 该行表示，宏观经济状况的改善正在提振对黄金ETF的需求，因为美联储加息的预期逐渐消退，美元走弱，而央行的强劲购买和更强劲的实物需求也在支撑金价。（文章来源：财联社）。

Current article:http://kekwmp.dingruorenhongqiaminmeipeiliu.cyou/drt6n3y/fojnzlz.html

Published on:18:13:21